There is quite a rainy stretch setting up for Michigan, especially the driest part of the state - southern Michigan.
This won’t just be one rainy period. It looks like the southern half of Lower Michigan could have three to four significant six hour rainy periods between Friday and next Tuesday.
The model run below should give you a good feel for wave after wave of rain.
six-hour rain totals from 8 p.m. Thursday to 8 p.m. next Tuesday, June 29.
The largest, heaviest area of rain should move through Lower Michigan Friday, with the heaviest of rain hitting the southern half of Lower Michigan. The second wave of rain should come through Lower Michigan Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. Sunday could have occasional showers draped across southeast Lower. Finally, the last in a series of rainy periods may move through Monday night and Tuesday.
If you are into an outdoor project that will be affected by heavy rain, keep a close eye on the weather with me. We will have better timing on each round of rain as the time draws closer to that round of rain. Friday’s rainy period is quite likely, while the weekend bouts of rain are still a little iffy.
While the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t have us in a severe weather risk right now for Friday, it’s the kind of weather pattern that could make a straight-line wind in thunderstorms across the southern third of Lower Michigan.
Here is the total rainfall forecast from two different forecasts. First is the European Model in the Ensemble Mode, which should be the best way to see the rainfall potential.
Total rainfall forecast through 8 p.m. Tuesday, June 29, 2021 based on the European Model Ensemble.
The waves of rain are forecast to add up to between three and five inches of rain for southern Michigan and two to three inches for northern Michigan.
The human-made forecast is even heavier on rainfall forecasts through late Tuesday.
Total rainfall forecast through 8 a.m. Tuesday, June 29, 2021. This forecast comes from meteorologists looking at all of the models.
Meteorologists at the Weather Prediction Center, the rainfall forecasting branch of NOAA, are forecasting over five inches of rain through next Tuesday for the southwest corner of Michigan. The rest of southern Michigan is in the three to four inch rain forecast.
If three or more inches of rain fall in widespread fashion across southern Lower Michigan, there will be a big dent in the drought conditions. Rainfall of five to seven inches would definitely end the drought in those regions.
"heavy" - Google News
June 23, 2021 at 10:53PM
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Heavy rain coming, it should put a big dent in Michigan’s drought - MLive.com
"heavy" - Google News
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heavy
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