Wrightsville Beach, N.C. — New data from the National Weather Service office in Wilmington shows that 48% of the people who die in rip currents at the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts are from the Carolinas. Eighty percent of rip current deaths in the Carolinas since the year 2000 were people who didn’t live at the coast. WRAL News has reported both on heroic rescues and tragic deaths of Triangle residents caught in rip currents.
A new rip current model released by NOAA this year will provide more precise and longer-range forecasts in hopes of saving lives. Steven Pfaff from the National Weather Service in Wilmington explains: “(We now) have a model that’s looking at water levels and wave information and is customized for the coast of NC."
The new model allows for a beach-by-beach rip current forecast instead of the previous county-by-county forecasting method. Pfaff calls it a “game changing part of our toolbox."
Until 2021, rip current forecasts were only available for the next day. The new rip current model provides forecasts for up to six days in the future in three-hour increments. Longer-range forecasts will allow for lifeguard groups and beach services to better plan and staff in advance for higher risk days.
Not only are forecasts available six days in advance, but they provide more precise rip current risks on a scale of 1 to 100 for each three-hour time increments at the NWS Wilmington forecast office.
This allows meteorologists to pinpoint the time periods with the highest risks and provide more detailed forecasts and warnings to the public. Pfaff says that most rip current deaths occur between the hours of noon and 5 p.m. but they can occur any time of the day and night.
The National Weather Service in Wilmington hosted a webinar with local lifeguard and ocean rescue groups to discuss the new technology. The bottom line, Pfaff says, “We feel the output that we get from [the new model] can help save lives” when combined with continued rip current safety education.
This summer, rip current forecasts on WRAL News and the flags flying at the coast will be more accurate. On some high-risk days, the WRAL Severe Weather Center will be able to warn about the most dangerous hours to be in the water.
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June 22, 2021 at 05:13AM
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Improvements allow for rip current forecasts by beach, time of day to save more lives - WRAL.com
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