Welcome to Edition 4.04 of the Rocket Report! About two months ago, we reported on China's state rocket company releasing a rendering of a spacecraft that looked a lot like SpaceX's Starship vehicle. Now, a senior Chinese space official says the country is modifying its plans for a very large rocket, the Long March 9. This booster, it turns out, also looks similar to the design of SpaceX's Super Heavy booster, which will serve as the first stage of Starship.
More details below.
As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.
Another Iranian rocket launch fails. In mid-June, the government of Iran attempted to launch a satellite from its Khomeini facility, located about 300 km east of Tehran. However, the launch failed. "US Space Command is aware of the Iranian rocket launch failure which occurred early June 12th," Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Uriah Orland told CNN.
Struggling with Simorgh ... US military officials did not identify the rocket used, but Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said it was likely the Simorgh rocket. This three-stage rocket uses main engines based on a North Korean design. "The failed launch attempt is the fourth consecutive failure of the Simorgh launcher," Lewis said. "Iran seems to be struggling with this specific system. Other Iranian rockets of different designs have been more successful." (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Virgin Orbit now targeting June 30. After completing a wet dress rehearsal of its LauncherOne vehicle, Virgin Orbit said it is targeting June 30 or "the early days of July" for the next launch of its booster. "We will only proceed with the mission if all conditions for launch are nominal. If for some reason the launch is delayed, we have backup windows extending through July," the company said.
Enjoy a live broadcast ... The mission, named Tubular Bells: Part One, will carry seven satellites into low Earth orbit, including three payloads for the US Department of Defense's Space Test Program. The company is now working through its final "routine items" on its preflight checklist. The company will provide a public webcast on YouTube. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Good overview of the small launch industry. For anyone who wants a basic primer on the current state of small-satellite launch vehicles, aerospace engineer Ian Vorbach has written a concise summary of the industry on Substack. He reviews six of the major players in the United States as well as Europe's Vega rocket. There are, of course, many more companies and lots of new players in Europe, India, and China. But this provides a good look at the US companies closest to market.
When you subtract Starlink and OneWeb ... Vorbach also analyzes the demand for small-satellite launches, and the result is fairly pessimistic, finding a relatively small market size of a few dozen satellites a year. "With so many small launch vehicles coming to market in the coming year, and some stating aspirational goals of one launch per week or even per day, this feels incongruous from the hundreds of launches per year that would be required to sustain all of the vehicles being developed," Vorbach writes.
Turkey aims to develop a domestic launch capability. Turkey plans to send a rover to the Moon by the end of the decade using a domestically built rocket engine, Space.com reports. Serdar Hüseyin Yildirim, president of the Turkish Space Agency, shared details of this effort at the Global Space Exploration Conference this month. The rover—which will be launched in 2028 or 2029—will land softly on the Moon and collect scientific data.
And a GPS, too ... The rocket that launches the Moon rover will use a hybrid engine that is currently being developed in Turkey, Yildirim said. Turkey created its space agency in 2018 and released a report earlier this year that foresees the establishment of a local Turkish spaceport and the development of a domestic regional positioning and timing satellite system. The development of Turkey's space agency is worth watching as the country's GDP ranks in the top 10 globally. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Space Force says autonomous flight safety system works well. A few years after its introduction, the Space Force says an automated flight safety system (AFFS) pioneered by SpaceX at Cape Canaveral is allowing for a more rapid launch cadence. "The AFSS moves computing and analysis to the onboard flight computer so the launch vehicle receives tracking information, GPS, and can determine if it is heading off course," said 1st Lt. Stephen Pitre, range engineer, 1st Range Operations Squadron.
From experiment to reality ... The difference between a traditional flight-termination system and the AFSS is the use of instruments. With the AFSS not requiring the use of all ground-based instruments, this eliminates range-maintenance periods, line-of-sight requirements, coverage and transmission issues, along with the need for personnel on the ground. "With this system in play, we are able to better support the demands of our launch partners," the Space Force said. SpaceX first demonstrated use of the AFSS in 2017. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
ULA delivers Starliner crew launch rocket. United Launch Alliance said this week it has delivered the Atlas V rocket to Cape Canaveral, Florida, where it will launch Boeing's CST-100 Starliner spacecraft with three NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. The rocket traveled by barge to the launch site from the company's factory in Decatur, Alabama.
When will it fly? ... Boeing must first demonstrate the safety of Starliner with its second demonstration mission, OFT, scheduled to launch late next month. NASA recently said that if "Starliner's second uncrewed mission meets all necessary objectives, NASA and Boeing will look for opportunities toward the end of this year to fly Starliner's first crewed mission." A good source tells me that date is optimistic and that the second or third quarter of 2022 is more likely. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
Nauka module being connected to Proton upper stage. The launch of a new Russian segment of the International Space Station is becoming more and more real. This week, RSC Energia, a leading Russian space manufacturer that jointly developed the hardware, said the Nauka module has been mated to the adapter section of the Proton's third stage. Although delayed, the Russian addition to the space station is much anticipated.
Bound for Zvezda ... Next up, as part of the processing, will be a mass check and then fueling of Nauka's main propellant tanks. The scientific module is currently scheduled for a launch in mid-July, after which it will be installed to the nadir port of the Zvezda Service Module. (submitted by EllPeaTea)
Progress continues on new SpaceX drone ship. SpaceX recently dispatched one of its two drone ships for rocket landings, Of Course I Still Love You, to the Pacific Ocean to serve the needs of its Vandenberg-based launch site. However, with a frequent cadence of launches from Florida and upcoming Falcon Heavy missions, the company needs a second drone ship in the Atlantic.
Now there are three of them ... Enter A Shortfall of Gravitas. Space Explored reports that the barge being converted to serve as a drone ship is in the process of receiving deck extensions to accommodate the landing of first stages. It remains unclear when the company's third drone ship will take to the seas to catch rockets. (submitted by DanNeely)
ULA delays use of upgraded RL10 engines. United Launch Alliance will not use an upgraded upper-stage engine in upcoming Atlas 5 missions as the company investigates the source of vibrations seen during the launch last month of the US Space Force's SBIRS-5 missile warning satellite. The Aerojet Rocketdyne RL10 engine that powered the Atlas 5's upper stage had a new nozzle extension that was observed vibrating, or "ringing," during flight, SpaceNews reports.
An unexpected anomaly ... ULA's chief officer, Tory Bruno, said Wednesday that the company is studying data from the flight and has not yet decided what corrective action, if any, the company should take. In the meantime, the new version of the RL10 with the carbon nozzle extension will not be used in upcoming Atlas 5 missions, Bruno said. The ringing issue caught ULA by surprise, he said, adding, "We saw something we didn't understand and didn't expect to happen." The engine with this extended nozzle is expected to power the upper stage of ULA's next-generation rocket, the Vulcan Centaur. (submitted by Ken the Bin)
China may build a Super Heavy clone. For several years, Chinese rocket officials have talked about building a large "Long March 9" booster for its heaviest missions, including lunar landings. Consisting of a large core stage with four boosters, the Long March 9 was expected to have a capacity of 140 metric tons to low Earth orbit, and its development was formally approved earlier this year. This superheavy rocket was, in many ways, a natural evolution of China's existing family of Long March rockets. It was slated to enter service around 2030.
Plans may be changing ... However, during a presentation Thursday in Hong Kong, senior Chinese launch official Long Lehao showed off a radically new design for the Long March 9 rocket. (This can be seen at 1 hour, 38 minutes into the linked video.) Instead of using four boosters, the new design uses just a core stage powered by 16 new engines, named YF 135. The clustering of these engines appears similar to SpaceX's Super Heavy vehicle, which serves as the first stage for the Starship rocket. The proposed Chinese rocket has a similar lift capacity as well, with Long's chart showing a 150-metric-ton capability to low Earth orbit.
Vulcan launch delayed until 2022. During an appearance on a podcast with Aviation Week, ULA chief Tory Bruno acknowledged the company's Vulcan rocket will not debut until 2022. The first launch will carry the Peregrine lunar lander for Astrobotic, Bruno said, and the spacecraft will not be ready for this year. As for the rocket, it still has a chance to be ready for flight in 2021, but Bruno said pretty much everything would have to go right for that to happen.
BE-4 you launch, you need the engines ... The pacing item for Vulcan's launch is the BE-4 rocket engine, being manufactured by Blue Origin. Bruno said the engine is making progress but remains on the test stand: "We've narrowed down to what we think is the final configuration. It's in its prequalification test series right now." Previously, Bruno had said he expected to take delivery of the BE-4 engines sometime this summer.
Ariane 6 debut may slip again to late 2022. Europe's top space official said Monday that ensuring the first launch of the Ariane 6 rocket takes place in 2022 is a very high priority, Ars reports. Together with the leaders of French space agency CNES and the Ariane 6's prime contractor, Ariane Group, European Space Agency (ESA) Director General Josef Aschbacher said he had put "a small group" together to make an independent assessment of the schedule for the final development phase of the Ariane 6 rocket. The goal of this task force will be to ensure that Europe does everything it needs to do to launch on time.
Rocket was once expected to debut in 2020 ... In referring to an "on time" launch, Aschbacher said he meant next year, before the ESA Ministerial Council meeting that is typically held in October or November. This is a high-level meeting where representatives from each member nation of the space agency gather to set policy. The comments from Aschbacher, however, suggest that Ariane 6 is no longer on target to launch during the first half of 2022. Rather, making a launch date before the end of next year sounds like it will be a struggle.
Next three launches
June 25: Soyuz 2.1b | Pion-NKS 1 reconnaissance satellite | Plesetsk Cosmodrome, Russia | 19:50 UTC
June 28: Falcon 9 | Transporter 2 ride-share mission | Cape Canaveral, Fla. | 18:56
June 29: Soyuz 2.1a | Progress cargo supply | Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan | 23:27 UTC
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Rocket Report: China to copy SpaceX’s Super Heavy? Vulcan slips to 2022 - Ars Technica
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