BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The Storm Team is posting a First Alert for the upcoming weekend with the potential for heavy rainfall impacting the area. The rains will be driven by a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is given a 90% chance of development as of Wednesday morning.
Timing
The disturbance will start moving northward Thursday into Friday and likely reach the northern Gulf Coast by Saturday. A tropical depression or weak tropical storm appears most likely, with heavy rainfall still the primary concern.
Look for bands of showers and thunderstorms to start impacting the area by Friday afternoon/evening, with the heaviest rainfall expected on Saturday. However, good rain chances will linger into Sunday as the system gradually slides to our east.
Rainfall Amounts
Model guidance has actually trended slightly lower on rain totals over the last couple of runs, but there is still a very real potential for heavy and at times flooding rains.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) already has a level 2/4 (slight) risk of flooding posted generally near and south of I-10 from Friday into Saturday morning, with a level 1/4 (marginal) risk into metro Baton Rouge.
WPC is forecasting average rain totals of 5″-8″ across most of southeast Louisiana, with locally higher amounts very possible. The European and GFS models have trended a little lower on totals, but still show 3″-6″ impacting much of the area. Any heavy, persistent rain bands will be capable of producing amounts well above what is shown in those two models.
Other Impacts
With the system to remain on the weaker side, wind should not be a huge impact, but tropical storm force gusts will still be possible into the weekend. With that in mind, scattered power outages could impact some areas. Coastal flooding could also be an issue as southerly winds drive water levels higher.
Beyond the Weekend
The extended forecast indicates scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist into the early part of next week. We should see more of a transition to a typical summer pattern by the second half of the week.
Click here to report a typo.
Copyright 2021 WAFB. All rights reserved.
"heavy" - Google News
June 16, 2021 at 04:49PM
https://ift.tt/3q08fh7
Heavy rainfall expected for upcoming weekend - WAFB
"heavy" - Google News
https://ift.tt/35FbxvS
https://ift.tt/3c3RoCk
heavy
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Heavy rainfall expected for upcoming weekend - WAFB"
Post a Comment