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Heavy rainfall expected for upcoming weekend - WAFB

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BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - The Storm Team is posting a First Alert for the upcoming weekend with the potential for heavy rainfall impacting the area. The rains will be driven by a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is given a 90% chance of development as of Wednesday morning.

Hi-Res Euro model for Saturday, June 19.
Hi-Res Euro model for Saturday, June 19.(WAFB)
Pinpoint forecast for Wednesday, June 16.
Pinpoint forecast for Wednesday, June 16.(WAFB)

Timing

The disturbance will start moving northward Thursday into Friday and likely reach the northern Gulf Coast by Saturday. A tropical depression or weak tropical storm appears most likely, with heavy rainfall still the primary concern.

Look for bands of showers and thunderstorms to start impacting the area by Friday afternoon/evening, with the heaviest rainfall expected on Saturday. However, good rain chances will linger into Sunday as the system gradually slides to our east.

Rainfall Amounts

Model guidance has actually trended slightly lower on rain totals over the last couple of runs, but there is still a very real potential for heavy and at times flooding rains.

WPC precipitation forecast for next seven days through next Wednesday, June 23.
WPC precipitation forecast for next seven days through next Wednesday, June 23.(WAFB)
Flood risk for next seven days.
Flood risk for next seven days.(WAFB)

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) already has a level 2/4 (slight) risk of flooding posted generally near and south of I-10 from Friday into Saturday morning, with a level 1/4 (marginal) risk into metro Baton Rouge.

Euro model forecast for Monday, June 21.
Euro model forecast for Monday, June 21.(WAFB)
GFS forecast rainfall amounts for Monday, June 21.
GFS forecast rainfall amounts for Monday, June 21.(WAFB)

WPC is forecasting average rain totals of 5″-8″ across most of southeast Louisiana, with locally higher amounts very possible. The European and GFS models have trended a little lower on totals, but still show 3″-6″ impacting much of the area. Any heavy, persistent rain bands will be capable of producing amounts well above what is shown in those two models.

Other Impacts

With the system to remain on the weaker side, wind should not be a huge impact, but tropical storm force gusts will still be possible into the weekend. With that in mind, scattered power outages could impact some areas. Coastal flooding could also be an issue as southerly winds drive water levels higher.

Beyond the Weekend

10 day forecast as of Wednesday, June 16.
10 day forecast as of Wednesday, June 16.(WAFB)

The extended forecast indicates scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist into the early part of next week. We should see more of a transition to a typical summer pattern by the second half of the week.

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