- A sluggish weather system will produce widespread showers and storms in parts of the Plains and Midwest through midweek.
- Severe storms are possible beginning Tuesday from portions of Kansas into Texas.
- Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain could continue through at least Wednesday.
A slow-moving weather system will produce severe thunderstorms, including possible tornadoes, in the Plains as soaking rain also spreads into parts of the Midwest through midweek.
An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will drop into the Southwest and only move slowly eastward toward the Southern Plains through midweek. This will be accompanied by a wavy frontal system draped from the Southern Plains into the Midwest.
With a surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture pushing northward, we expect the upper low and front to produce a widespread area of rain and thunderstorms. Some of those storms could turn severe, and heavy rain might trigger at least localized flash flooding.
Below we have a closer look at the forecast for what to expect.
Forecast
Tuesday-Tuesday Night
The threat of severe weather will begin in the Central and Southern Plains on Tuesday afternoon and continue into the evening hours.
Areas from south-central Kansas into western and central Oklahoma and western Texas have the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms. This region will likely see supercell thunderstorms develop, which could produce large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day. )Wednesday-Thursday
A widespread area from Texas into parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys will see showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday into Thursday.
Heavy rainfall is possible in some areas, and that might trigger localized flash flooding.
The forecast for what locations might see severe thunderstorms on Wednesday is still uncertain. An area from north and central Texas into parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and southwest Missouri has the greatest chance to see at least isolated severe storms based on the latest forecast, but keep in mind this could change in future updates.
Wednesday's Forecast
(Area shaded in red has the greatest chance of seeing severe thunderstorms.)A broad area from northern and central Texas into the Ohio Valley could pick up an inch or more of rainfall from Tuesday through Thursday.
Multi-inch rainfall totals are most likely from northern Texas into the Ozarks. The rainfall will be beneficial to alleviate dryness in some of these areas, but it could also trigger localized flash flooding.
Check back to weather.com for updates and more details on the severe weather and heavy rain forecast through midweek.
Rainfall Forecast
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