- Henri has strengthened into a hurricane.
- Henri will likely track over parts of the Northeast late weekend into early next week.
- Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for parts of the Northeast.
Henri has become a Category 1 hurricane and will track toward the Northeast, likely making landfall on Long Island or southern New England near hurricane strength late Sunday.
Residents of the Northeast U.S. should monitor Henri's progress closely since it may bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to parts of the region late this weekend into early next week.
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been extended eastward.
Watches and Warnings
Storm Surge Alerts
A storm surge warning has been issued for Long Island eastward from Mastic Beach to Montauk and from Flushing, New York to Montauk, as well as from Flushing, New York east to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard and Block Island. A storm surge warning is issued when there is a threat of life-threatening storm surge within the next 36 hours.
A storm surge watch has been issued from East Rockaway Beach to Mastic Beach and from Chatham, Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts. This watch is also in effect for Cape Cod Bay.
Wind Alerts
A hurricane warning has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island Inlet and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward, as well as from New Haven, Connecticut, to Westport, Massachusetts. Hurricane conditions are expected there late Saturday night or on Sunday.
A tropical storm warning has been issued from Port Jefferson Harbor to New Haven, Connecticut, from Fire Island Inlet on Long Island to East Rockaway Inlet, New York, from Westport to Chatham, Massachusetts and from coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet. These watches include New York City, Martha's Vineyard and Block Island. Tropical storm conditions are expected there by early Sunday.
Current Information
Henri is located less than 500 miles south of Montauk Point, New York, or midway between Bermuda and the mid-Atlantic, and is moving north-northeastward. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.
(MAPS: Track Henri Here)
Henri has been battling wind shear and dry air. However, wind shear is weakening and Henri is tracking across very warm water.
Forecast Track, Intensity Uncertain
Henri has turned toward the north-northeastward and its forward speed will increase as it tracks generally northward Saturday. This more northerly track will be influenced by the steering from a ridge of high pressure over the north-central Atlantic and an upper-level disturbance over the eastern U.S.
A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Saturday night
Henri's circulation center is likely to move within the forecast path shown below. Impacts will spread well beyond this cone.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the system. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical system usually spread beyond its forecast path)For now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts Henri to be weakening from a Category 1 hurricane to a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Northeast because the system will encounter cooler waters and some possible increased wind shear during that time.
Henri's forward progress could also slow down on approach to New England because of blocking high pressure to its north over Quebec.
Potential Impacts
The bottom line is that Henri could bring wind, rain and storm surge impacts to at least parts of the Northeast beginning later this weekend.
Storm Surge
Tides will also be running higher than normal this weekend due to the full moon, which could worsen the impact of any storm surge flooding. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide could cause the water to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
-Flushing, New York, to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound: 3 to 5 feet
-The north shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point and for the south shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point: 3-5 feet
-Chatham, Massachusetts eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod Bay: 2-4 feet
-East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Mastic Beach, New York: 2 to 4 feet
-Cape May, New Jersey, to East Rockaway Inlet, New York: 1 to 3 feet.
-Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts to the Merrimack River, including Massachusetts Bay: 1 to 3 feet
Wind
Tropical-storm-force winds will most likely reach southern New England by Sunday morning and could be prolonged once they arrive. Hurricane-force winds are also a concern in the hurricane watch and warning areas for Sunday.
The strongest winds will likely be focused east of the track of Henri's center.
Keep in mind that impacts can occur quite a distance away from where the actual center of Henri tracks.
Extensive power outages are possible from the New York City area to Long Island to New England.
Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds
(The contours above show the chance of tropical-storm-force winds (at least 39 mph) and the most likely time they could first arrive, according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.)Rainfall
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, are expected over Long Island, New England, southeastern New York and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding and small stream flooding. Much of this region has experienced a very wet summer and recently received heavy rainfall from the remnant of Fred, meaning flooding is a significant threat.
The heaviest rain from Henri is expected to be along and west of its track.
Tornadoes
A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England.
High Surf, Rip Currents
Increased swells are expected along the East Coast this weekend.
High surf and life-threatening rip currents could impact beaches along the East Coast this weekend.
Forecast Wave Heights
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