Wednesday Weather 9-29-21
VICTORIA, Texas-: Today: Mostly cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 88 degrees. Winds: SE 5-15 mph. A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain totals will be between 1/10″ to 1/4″ but higher totals if thunderstorms are present. Heat index temperatures will be around 100 degrees.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy skies with moderate winds while temperatures stay above average. Low: 73 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 88 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay above average. Low: 72 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Extended Forecast: Friday through Wednesday:
Friday: Cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 85/72 degrees. Winds: SE 5-10 mph. A 70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay below average. High: 85/70 degrees. Winds: SE 10 mph. A 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 88/68 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph. A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Monday: Partly sunny skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 88/65 degrees. Winds: NE 5 mph. A 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 87/63 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy skies with light winds while temperatures stay around average. High: 88/65 degrees. Winds: NE 10 mph. A 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Synopsis: Upper-level fast-moving winds moving across the northern portion of the viewing area will be the driving force (creating lift) creating the rain showers Wednesday. Moisture levels are on the high side (above 2″, over the Coastal Bend/offshore, Coastal Plains). Combine those winds, with the high moisture levels, plus day-time heating from the sun and that spells for rain showers on Wednesday. The dynamics are there for heavy rainfall at times (1.5″ to 2.0″ in the air, until 7 pm Wednesday). The threshold for Flash Flood Guidance is 3-4″ over the northern part of the viewing area. From 7 pm Wednesday until 7 am Thursday moisture levels will be greater than Tuesday and we will start getting ready potentially for Flash Flooding if the moisture levels warrant the situation. At this time, most flooding will be localized and not of the Flash Flooding (Advisory) variety. If the upper-level fast-moving winds shift slightly northward on Wednesday, then the lift and heavier rain will move there as well. Either way, the sun’s energy, atmospheric instability and the high moisture levels will bring the rain. For Wednesday, heat index values around 105 degrees are expected, while the greatest strength (lift, forcing) from the stronger upper-level system is not expected to reach the viewing area until after Wednesday night. In the long term for the extended period, days 3 to 7, Thursday through Tuesday, the unsettled wet weather pattern is slated to continue through the weekend and into next week. As we head into next week, an upper-level low-pressure system and associated trough will dig across the Great Plains ejecting a weak cold front into Texas. The cold front could stall north of the area, but if it continues south (clearing) into the viewing area then the Crossroads would see a slight temperature change (drop) with or without the passage of the front. The bigger focus would be on the drier air behind the front. If the front was to clear South Texas early next week, then moisture levels of less than 1″ would move into the area, allowing us to dry off from the soggy weekend. If the cold front stalls to our north, moisture levels near 2″ could remain in place next week resulting in a continuance of the wet weather.
Tropics: The disorganized storm with less shower activity that is the remnant of Peter is moving northeastward at 10 mph and is few hundred miles east northeast of Bermuda. The system is moving into an area with high upper-level winds and significant development of this storm is no longer anticipated (10 percent chance in the next 2-5 days).
Hurricane Sam is now a Major Category 4 Hurricane with winds at 140 mph (944 mb pressure) but is not likely to hit land (landfall) as the Jet Stream steer’s the storm further west into the Atlantic. Sam is moving northwest at 9 miles per hour (moving northward as well), but if the Jet Stream dips or moves further west or even meanders westward, then there is room for Sam to get very close to the U.S. next weekend. Even if Sam remains east of the U.S. late this week through next weekend, seas (could rise) along the Atlantic coast from central Florida to Maine with building surf (life threatening surf on the East Coast) and increasing rip currents later this week. Again, Sam is not expected to make landfall in the United States. Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Large swells by Sam are affecting the Leeward Island and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beach goers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend.
An un-organized low-pressure storm (moving westward at 5-10 mph) is developing several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Favorable atmospheric conditions should allow this storm to become a depression (50 percent chance over the next 2-5 days) by the next day or two. The storm is being hindered by the low to the east.
A tropical wave not too far off the west coast of Africa today (Wednesday) is gradually becoming better organized. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or tonight. Weak upper-level winds should allow this wave to become a tropical depression (90 percent chance over the next 2-5 days) in a few days as the system moves westward to west northwestward at 10-15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
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Heavy rain and possible flooding - Crossroads Today
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