OLYMPIA - According to the latest COVID-19 modeling and surveillance situation report released from the Washington State Department of Health (DOH), a majority of counties in the state (32/39) now have case rates above 500 per 100,000. The DOH says Washington is likely to see continued high levels of cases and hospital admissions, with increasing deaths.
Recent report findings from the DOH include:
COVID-19 prevalence is at a new high.
On September 8, overall prevalence (the percentage of Washington state residents with active COVID-19 infection) in Washington state was likely between 0.52% and 1.42%, with a best estimate of 0.94%. This translates to 1 in 106 WA residents estimated to have an active COVID-19 infection (symptomatic and asymptomatic).
Prevalence increased sharply through July, exceeding levels during the third wave of infection in the winter of 2020. The previous reported high was 0.64% in August 2021, or about 1 in every 156 Washingtonians.
Transmission continues to increase, but at a slower rate. As of September 2, the best estimate of the effective reproductive number (Re, which tells how many new people each COVID-19 case will infect) was 1.14. On August 6, this estimate was 1.49. A reproductive number above one means that cases are likely to continue to increase. To see cases decline, the reproductive number needs to stay well below 1.0 for a substantial amount of time.
COVID-19 deaths are increasing. The seven-day rolling average of deaths has increased from 5-10 deaths per day in July, to 27 deaths per day by the end of August.
Hospital admissions and occupancy for COVID-19 are still very high. After a peak of 190 daily admissions (seven-day rolling average) at the end of August, the current average has declined slightly to 186. Both admissions and occupancy remain at high levels. Although some recent declines are apparent as of September 18, current occupancy levels still far exceed those observed during the previous highs of winter 2020.
“What this tells us is that our individual choices and behaviors today are going to determine whether or not our friends and families will have full access to health care in the near future, for any medical need, not just COVID,” said Scott Lindquist, MD, MPH, state epidemiologist for communicable diseases. “The current surge of patients is overwhelming our hospitals. With school in session and flu season almost here, our best option for getting through the surge is to wear our masks and get vaccinated.”
County-level trends
Case counts: County-level case counts as of September 8, 2021:
- Case counts in the five largest counties (Clark, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane) remain at levels exceeding their winter 2020 peak, but show recent flattening or declines.
- Among middle-sized counties, cases are also at or above prior peaks. Thurston is seeing increases in counts. Grant, Cowlitz, Skagit, Benton, Yakima, and Kitsap show flattening in counts. Franklin and Whatcom show declining counts.
- Among small counties, counts are increasing in Stevens, Grays Harbor, Lincoln, and Pacific. Counts are flattening in Douglas, Kittitas, Whitman, Walla Walla, Mason, and Island. Counts are declining in Okanogan, Clallam, Lewis, Pend Oreille, Jefferson, and Klickitat. All other small counties have fewer than 10 cases per day.
Case rates
As of September 8, 32 of 39 counties in Washington had rates above 500 per 100,000. 16 of those had rates over 1,000 per 100,000. No counties had 14 day rates below 100 per 100,000 people.
More COVID-19 data can be found on the DOH data dashboard.
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September 24, 2021 at 04:08AM
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