Tuesday, June 1, 2021
Our holiday-shortened week of trading is starting slowly, but will build to a crescendo with a bevy of economic reports relating to the U.S. labor force by the end of the week: Automatic Data Processing ADP private-sector jobs for May, non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and, of course, weekly Jobless Claims. The indexes start the week in the green: the Dow is up 260 points, the S&P 500 +25 and the Nasdaq +55.
The ADP report has been bumped to Thursday from its normal Wednesday slot, on account of the Memorial Day celebration yesterday. Currently, the Dow is riding higher six of the past seven trading sessions, with all three major indexes still somewhat near their all-time high closing levels. Later this morning, we’ll get the final read on PMI Manufacturing for May, as well as ISM Manufacturing numbers. Both are expected pretty much in-line, month over month.
The real news of the week — with Q1 earnings season almost completely over — comes on the jobs news. Remembering back to the start of last month, the employment picture was expected to be far more robust than the numbers indicated: though we saw 742K new private-sector jobs from the ADP report, the BLS headline of 266K was a big disappointment. The Unemployment Rate even ticked up for the first time in recent memory, to 6.1%.
Right now, we see Thursday’s ADP estimate at 700K, with BLS close behind, 674K. This would also take the Unemployment Rate down to a five-handle, 5.9%, for the first time since the advent of the pandemic era, now 15 months ago. After our three-day weekend in many regions of the country, it’s quite possible anecdotal evidence of the Great Reopening is visible everywhere. We assume eventually that will hit the labor force in meaningful ways.
In May, the tech-heavy Nasdaq broke its six-month win streak, while the Dow and S&P continue riding four-month increases. About the only headwind we’re currently seeing by way of the Great Reopening finally unfolding are the inflation metrics on things like commodity prices. These may eat into the easy comps we expect to see in Q2 earnings results, which will begin to file in mid-next month.
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June 01, 2021 at 09:14PM
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