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Another week and another period of heavy rain is in the forecast. By the tail end of the 7-Day, some late May heat will come onto the board.
Measured vs. Radar Estimates (so far, 8:30pm)
?? Alligator Bayou, Kleinpeter - 4.11"
?? Ward Creek, Highland Rd. - 4.02"
?? Comite River, Comite Dr. - 3.95"
?? Many gauges in Ascension, E. #BatonRouge over 2"Much more rain to come! #LaWXhttps://t.co/ZmHjPvZVod pic.twitter.com/YhIzAEeanP
— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) May 18, 2021
Next 24 Hours: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into the nighttime hours, especially early. Low temperatures in the upper 60s will keep it feeling muggy as winds stay out of the east at 10-15mph. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are in store for Tuesday. Though confidence in timing is a bit lower than usual, the mid-morning through afternoon hours appear to be most active. Any storms will be capable of downpours. High temperatures will make it to about 80 degrees.
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A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for parishes along and south of I-10, until Wednesday afternoon. This includes: East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. James, St. Mary and southern Tangipahoa Parishes. * Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 6 inches will be possible through Wednesday morning. The most likely areas for heavy rainfall will be along and south of the I-10/12 corridor in Southeast Louisiana including portions of metro Baton Rouge and metro New Orleans. These heavier rainfall amounts could cause localized flash flooding issues. High rainfall rates could overwhelm drainage capacity. Ponding of water in low lying and poorly drained areas will be possible, and flash flooding could occur where the heaviest rain occurs.
Up Next: The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly during the afternoon hours. Daytime warming should be the key trigger in initiating activity. Some briefly heavy or gusty storms will remain possible. As far as temperatures go, highs will be in the low 80s with lows in the low 70s. Friday will bring a transition with slightly warmer and drier conditions, though a pop-up, afternoon shower or storm will remain possible. Over the weekend, a drier pattern will take hold with sunny and warm afternoons, pushing 90 degrees. Humidity will not quite be to summertime levels, allowing overnight readings in the mid 60s. CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.
The Explanation: With a very moist and unstable air mass in place over the next couple of days, the atmosphere is primed for some more heavy rain. Additionally, the upper levels of the atmosphere are favorable for continued rounds of efficient thunderstorms. Though a lull is possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning, ingredients should be recharged for showers and thunderstorms mid-morning Tuesday and onward. Storms will not be moving all that fast, so they could dump copious rainfall over any one area. Areas south of I-10 will be the most favorable for torrential rain. Once again, a loss of daytime warmth should tend to decrease activity Tuesday night into Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be likely on Wednesday and Thursday but the flood threat should be curtailed by slightly lower instability and moisture in the atmosphere. By Friday, an upper level ridge will start to develop over the Southeast U.S. This ridge will result in a warming, and therefore more stable atmosphere. Given that Friday will be the transitional day, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast at peak daytime heat. Saturday into early next week, sinking air under the ridge will lead to mainly dry conditions with lower humidity and mostly clear skies. It is getting to be the time of the year where without rain, temperatures soar higher. Highs may push 90. Fortunately, with dew points remaining in the 60s, afternoons will be tolerable and nights will drop into the mid to upper 60s.
--Josh
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"heavy" - Google News
May 18, 2021 at 08:47AM
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Locally heavy rain expected to begin the week - WBRZ
"heavy" - Google News
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heavy
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