Since Tuesday, Elsa has swept from the Florida Keys into the Mid-Atlantic. The storm made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida in Taylor County around 11 a.m. Wednesday, packing 65 mph winds and a storm surge of several feet. Along its journey, it has also unloaded more than 10 inches of rain and produced wind gusts topping 70 mph in a few locations.
Here are some of the rainfall totals:
Wind gusts reached at least 70 mph in the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida as well as in coastal Georgia and South Carolina.
The storm spawned a damaging tornado in Jacksonville, Fla., on Wednesday, while an EF2 twister struck Camden County, Ga., which injured 10 people at the Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base, according to the Associated Press. One person died in Jacksonville when strong winds toppled a tree onto a vehicle, AP reported.
Elsa currently
As of 11 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, Elsa was centered 50 miles north-northwest of Norfolk, barreling northeast at 25 mph approaching the Chesapeake Bay. Maximum winds were holding steady at 50 mph and a weather station on the Outer Banks of North Carolina recently clocked a gust to 58 mph.
Evening radar showed the storm’s heaviest rain concentrated east of Richmond while extending across the Delmarva into Ocean City, Md. The Weather Service highlighted a region from southeast Virginia through the Delmarva where rainfall rates could reach 2 to 2.5 inches per hour, producing totals of at least 3 to 4 inches through just after midnight Friday. It cautioned areas of flash flooding are likely. Radar indicated some areas south of Richmond and west of Williamsburg had seen 3 to 4 inches, although the rain was pulling away to the east.
East of the center of Elsa, there was potential for some thunderstorms embedded within Elsa’s rain bands to rotate, prompting a tornado watch for southeast Virginia, southern Maryland and southern Delmarva through 11 p.m. A tornado appeared to touch down near Suffolk, Va., a little after 7 p.m.
Mid-Atlantic forecast
Downpours will continue in Southern Maryland and the Delmarva through the evening while choppy seas and gusty winds will be found on the Chesapeake Bay. The rain should exit Southern Maryland a little after midnight and the northern Delmarva during the predawn hours, but not before unloading about 2 to 4 inches of rain.
The Delmarva Peninsula and southeast Virginia will also be areas to watch for very isolated tornado activity within the spiral rain bands sweeping into Elsa from the east Thursday night. That threat may also exist near the immediate coastline in New Jersey. Coastal sections of the Delmarva and southeast Virginia could also see straight-line wind gusts top 50 mph, as well as rough surf.
Although showers on Elsa’s periphery are likely to graze Washington and Baltimore through Thursday evening, it appears the bulk of the rain should miss those cities to the east and southeast. It’s possible both cities wind up with just a quarter to a half-inch of rainfall, while areas just 40 or 50 miles east get deluged with several inches.
In Philadelphia, which should lie closer to the western edge of the heavy rainfall, Elsa’s core should approach by midnight Thursday and last into the predawn hours Friday morning. An inch or two is possible.
New Jersey, New York and New England forecast
An increase in rainfall totals is possible in northern New Jersey and around the Big Apple, where thunderstorm activity blossoming in advance of Elsa’s arrival could tap into tropical moisture. That, combined with the rainfall directly from Elsa’s compact core, which should impact the Friday morning rush hour, could drop a total of 3 to 6 inches with up to 7 inches possible.
Long Island and the South Coast of southern New England could see 50 mph wind gusts.
The heaviest rain will fall in Connecticut from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Friday, and in the Boston to Providence corridor between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Slightly lesser rainfall is likely to the north and east, with a general 1 to 2 inches and a few 4 inch amounts. Elsa will be an afternoon event in Maine before the system slowly loses tropical characteristics and draws northeast into Nova Scotia.
Thereafter, the tropics look to simmer for a week or two, though signs point to a continued busy stretch into August amid what experts have already predicted to be another anomalously busy season.
When it formed about a week ago, Elsa became the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic In terms of the accumulated energy generated by storms, the 2021 hurricane season so far ranks as the second most in the past 50 years. In part thanks to the fast start, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, increased his prediction for the number of named storms this season to 20 on Thursday. The average is closer to 14.
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Tropical Storm Elsa gains strength while lashing Mid-Atlantic with rain and wind - The Washington Post
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