With Minnesota’s abysmal 67-59 loss to Northwestern on Thursday, Feb. 25 — which knocked the U off the NCAA Tournament bubble — Pitino’s winning percentage in Big Ten games fell to .363. He has won just 54 of 146 conference games since he took over in the 2013-14 season.
Barring a run to the Big Ten tournament title in early March, Pitino’s teams will have two NCAA Tournament appearances in eight seasons — and one win, in 2019.
When Coyle announced last March that Pitino would return after a lackluster season, the AD publicly reminded Pitino of the standard sought: “Richard understands my high expectations for our program, which is to compete at a championship level.”
It’s clear Pitino has fallen short of even a mediocre level, especially when it matters most. Since 2018, his teams’ winning percentage falls to .272 in regular-season games after the calendar turns to February and March.
This month, big injuries to two starters — center Liam Robbins and guard Gabe Kalscheur — have undercut Minnesota, but the Gophers’ current slide started before those two players were sidelined. The U has won two of seven games in February. The recent loss to Northwestern guarantees another losing record in conference play; it will be Pitino’s seventh in eight years.
While road games aren’t the same without fans in arenas due to COVID-19, the Gophers have managed to be the only Big Ten team without a road win (0-8) this season. Minnesota (13-11, 6-11 Big Ten) will get another shot against last-place Nebraska (5-17, 1-13) at 6 p.m. Saturday in Lincoln. After that, they have two regular-season games left before the mid-March conference tournament, where they currently are one of the bottom four seeds.
So, with those facts readily available, if Coyle is building a case to dismiss Pitino, the AD’s biggest hurdle will come in an off-the-court context.
After winning that one NCAA Tournament game in 2019, Pitino received a contract extension though the 2023-24 season; that means three more seasons remain on his deal. Pitino’s base salary is $2 million, plus incentives, according to a copy of the contract obtained by the Pioneer Press through a public data request.
If Pitino is fired before April 30, the U must pay a $1.75 million buyout, according to the contract. If the U keeps Pitino, his contract calls for a $400,000 retention bonus on April 30.
These big line items come as the Gophers athletics department is enduring a substantial multi-million-dollar revenue shortfall for the current fiscal year due to the pandemic. The U and big collegiate programs nationwide have had fewer games in their two top revenue sports — football and men’s basketball — meaning less income from TV contracts. They have had no fans at any athletic event (besides a few family members) in 2020-21, so that primary revenue stream dried up for this school year.
In October, the U said it could lose $40 million to $60 million due to pandemic causes in the current fiscal year.
In the U’s effort to correspondingly cut expenses, the U will stop playing three male sports — tennis, gymnastics and indoor track and field — starting in the fall. The U’s justification for cutting those sports also includes Title IX gender equity compliance, Coyle has said.
The U has installed pay cuts for Coyle, Pitino and other top coaches, as well as implementing furloughs and reducing staff. They have asked individual sports to limit expenses.
The U’s Board of Regents has been exploring a bridge loan to the athletics department during this lean year. The athletics department has produced balanced budgets in previous years.
Pitino’s buyout is only one part of the expense in changing leadership of a sports program. There’s also the potential expense of current U assistant coaches’ contracts and the cost of the next coach, potentially paying to release them from his current contract and, of course, his next salary.
It also could be an avenue for further savings, if Coyle can bring a coach in for less than Pitino’s $2 million annual salary. But Pitino’s current rate already is relatively low; his salary ranks 55th in the country and 11th in the 14-team Big Ten among men’s basketball coaches, according to USA Today’s database.
One area that would save money would by bypassing a search firm during the hiring process. Coyle — who came to the U in 2016 and, of course, did not hire Pitino — believes in conducting his own hiring process and has said he keeps files on potential candidates in case there’s an opening in any sport.
Another potential underlying benefit to a change in this position would be an opportunity to hire a coach of color in a department that needs more.
So, again, if Coyle moves on from Pitino, the primary question will be, can Coyle build a coalition — regents, boosters and others — to justify making a move of this financial magnitude given the department’s tight financial circumstances?
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