We continue to track Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located about 330 miles southeast Puerto Rico, or about 1,550 miles southeast of us in Southwest Florida. As of 5 a.m. Monday, maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. This storm is tracking to the west-northwest at 16 mph.
There is decent agreement in the model track forecast for the storm, with most showing it moving south of Puerto Rico, across or just north of Hispaniola and into the Florida Straits. From there the storm will likely turn to the NW into the Gulf of Mexico, paralleling our coastline. The NHC’s cone of concern forecast shows a track very similar to this, with the center of the storm close to our coastline Saturday.
There’s a good deal more uncertainty in the intensity forecast. In the near term, the system will face a number of limiting factors that should hinder its ability to intensify, including dry air, increasing wind shear, and likely land interactions with the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. If the system is able to survive these hurdles, it will have the opportunity to intensify if and when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico — with most models showing the system gaining intensity as it swirls along or just west of our coastline this weekend.
If that all sounds familiar, it’s because that type of track and intensity forecast would be very similar to what Elsa did back in July. While this doesn’t appear to be quite the same rain/flooding threat, heavy rain, localized flooding and even coastal flooding at high tide would likely be the biggest threats from this system here in SWFL. The latest model forecasts show a broad 2″-4″ of rain piling up across the area from the storm, with locally higher amounts possible.
While the NHC currently has the chances for tropical-storm-force winds at 5%-10% — if the system is able to avoid Hispaniola it would likely be a stronger storm as it nears the area, bringing a higher threat for strong winds.
We’ll be monitoring this storm closely in the coming days, and you should be too. Make sure your hurricane kits are stocked up and ready to go and be sure you keep it with us here on-air and online for updates.
"heavy" - Google News
August 10, 2021 at 05:13PM
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Developing Tropical Storm brings heavy rain to SWFL this weekend - ABC7 News
"heavy" - Google News
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