Despite the announcement of positive results of a COVID-19 vaccine trial, the outlook for winter in Alabama looks increasingly grim as cases and hospitalizations rise across the state and country.
Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, director of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine, said residents must continue to distance, wear masks and wash hands. The number of coronavirus cases in the United States hit an all-time high Tuesday and the number of hospitalized patients rose to levels not seen since April. The number of patients hospitalized statewide with coronavirus has been rising for the last month. In Jefferson County, that number has increased by 76 percent since Oct. 1.
Earlier this week, drug company Pfizer announced initial trial results showing 90 percent effectiveness for its COVID-19 vaccine. But even if the vaccine gains approval within the next month, the company can only produce about 10 to 15 million doses by the end of the year – a small percentage of the worldwide need. Until more doses can be produced and distributed, people must continue to be safe and follow public health guidelines, Marrazzo said.
“We have to keep our hats on about the excitement for a vaccine.” Marrazzo said. “Ten to fifteen million is not even enough to immunize people who are high risk for complications from COVID-19. It’s a ray of hope, but right now we have to slog through what these numbers are showing.”
Coronavirus cases in Alabama peaked over the summer, when the number of hospitalized patients topped 1,500. Those numbers dropped in August and September but have now risen to 1,200 with no signs of slowing. Marrazzo said upcoming holidays and family gatherings could fuel the current wave.
After cases dropped, much of Alabama life returned to normal. Schools and colleges reopened and even some festivals canceled in the Spring made their return. But the current increase in cases threatens to shut down some activities, including schools that have moved back to virtual instruction and college football games postponed due to outbreaks.
Marrazzo said outbreaks have been linked to churches, bars, restaurants and gyms. Gov. Kay Ivey and Alabama State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris recently allowed restaurants to have more diners inside after months limited to 50 percent capacity.
Businesses can safely remain open if people keep plenty of space between customers and employees by reducing capacity and enforcing the mask order, Marrazzo said. She also said UAB Hospital still has capacity despite rising numbers of COVID-19 patients.
Coronavirus cases surge in north Alabama as Thanksgiving approaches
Thanksgiving
Public health experts remain worried about the potential for explosive spread after Thanksgiving. Large family gatherings could fuel outbreaks and potentially expose elderly people at high risk of complications, Marrazzo said. In addition to following all the usual guidelines, people should consider hosting smaller celebrations.
“Limit the size of gatherings,” Marrazzo said. “You really don’t want 20 people standing over the turkey.”
An update from the Jefferson County Unified Command, which coordinates the county’s COVID-19 response, provided similar guidelines for holiday gatherings.
“Everyone needs to double down on efforts to prevent the spread of disease,” said Jefferson County Health Officer Dr. Mark Wilson. “This includes avoiding gatherings of extended family or modifying them significantly, especially where family members are older or have underlying medical conditions.”
Wilson suggested families limit holiday gatherings to people in the household. Marrazzo said people can reduce the dangers of gathering in large groups by limiting their exposure in the ten days prior to gatherings. She cautioned that a negative COVID-19 test can only provide a little security since it may take three days to develop an infection.
Death rates among hospitalized patients have declined since the early days of the pandemic with improvements in treatment. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently authorized emergency use of an antibody therapy by Eli Lilly and approved the drug remdesivir.
But even though survival rates have increased, Marrazzo warned they don’t show the full picture. In the United States, about 2.4 percent of people who test positive for COVID-19 die from the illness, according to Johns Hopkins University. Some patients have struggled with breathing problems and brain fog long after the infection is over, she said. UAB is opening a post-COVID clinic to help patients struggling with lingering symptoms. She warned against taking too much comfort in statistics that show high survival rates overall for the virus.
“It’s somewhat callous to say that 90 percent are going to survive because you are completely disregarding the 10 percent of people who didn’t survive,” Marrazzo said. “And when you look at it, the consequences of this virus go way beyond that number.”
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